While most of the United States has very low case numbers of COVID-19, Missouri, Utah, Nevada, and Arkansas are reporting spikes in new cases. These peaks occur predominantly in areas with low vaccination rates. There is concern that these communities may be more vulnerable to the new variant delta, which was originally discovered in India and is increasingly creeping through the US
Missouri is perhaps the hardest hit area. Only 38% of the state’s population is fully vaccinated, but some counties have recorded far lower vaccination rates. The state Department of Health, in partnership with the Department of Natural Resources and the University of Missouri, is tracking the variants of COVID-19 in the state through wastewater testing. The program, called the Sewershed Surveillance Project, has determined that the highly transferable Delta variant is spreading in 10 counties.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that the delta variant accounts for about 10% of COVID-19 infections in the United States. The Pfizer vaccine and the AstraZeneca vaccine, which is not yet available in the US, have been shown to be 90% effective against the Delta variant. But the virus has the potential to spread to areas with low vaccination rates. For example, the Sewershed Surveillance Project found the Delta variant in Linn County, where vaccination rates are 31% and cases were high in May and June. Neighboring Sullivan County has even lower vaccination rates, at 28%, and is just starting to rise in the number of cases. The Sewershed Surveillance Project has no data for Sullivan County, but there is a risk that the Delta variant that runs through Linn County could find its way into Sullivan County.
COVID-19 continues to mutate in ways that make it more dangerous. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases, called it the “greatest threat” to the country’s attempt to suppress COVID-19. According to MSNBC, global health experts have found that the already highly contagious Delta variant has changed to be even more transmissible and potentially less susceptible to some antibody treatments.
All of the states that have seen COVID-19 cases have risen have vaccination rates below 40%, with the exception of Utah, which vaccinated 42% of its population. However, state-level vaccination rates are less important to understanding where COVID-19 case numbers are likely to rise than more local vaccination and transmission rates. Utah saw higher vaccination rates in Summit County, where 64% of the population are vaccinated and the number of cases has fallen dramatically since January. But in Uintah County, where only a quarter of the people are vaccinated, the number of cases is skyrocketing.
Likewise, high vaccination rates at the state level don’t tell the full story. Texas vaccinated nearly 57% of its population. However, in the northern part of the state’s Hutchinson County, vaccination rates are 28%, according to the state, and cases have increased throughout June.
Some people have expressed concern that the vaccines have negative health effects, although data has shown that they are safe for adults and children 12 and over. The CDC recently released an update finding it had received more than a thousand reports of heart inflammation after two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. These cases appear to predominantly affect young men under the age of 16. Still, the agency currently recommends that children 12 years and older be vaccinated against COVID-19, with the number of reports of side effects being relatively low.
To build community resistance to COVID-19, Fauci urges more Americans to get vaccinated. “When you are vaccinated, you will be protected, which is another very good reason to strongly encourage people to vaccinate,” Fauci said on the morning issue of National Public Radio. “If you aren’t vaccinated, you run the risk of contracting the virus, which is now spreading faster and causing more serious illnesses.”
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