Colorado Springs warm and dry, well on its way to breaking the record for recent first snowfall | news

A warm and dry November in Colorado could set the stage for at least parts of the state for more of it this winter.

Forecasters are calling for a second straight La Niña winter for the state, a weather pattern that tends to force more snow into the northwestern mountains and less into the southwest, said Becky Bolinger, assistant climatologist for the state. Last year, the La Niña pattern didn’t become well established, but it could play a bigger role this season, adding to the effects of the drought in certain areas, she said.

“We need a recovery year to restore our water supply,” she said.

Snow has been slow to arrive in large quantities across the state, however, with snowpack in the Arkansas River Basin, which includes the Colorado Springs area, at 76% of normal. Data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service showed that the southwest corner of the state is particularly hard hit, with 35% of normal snow cover for the catchment areas of the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan rivers. But some of the state’s wettest months are yet to come and could help boost the state’s water prospects.

Colorado Springs is also seeing the impact of drought trends and is on track for its latest first snow, which broke a record when 0.2 inches fell on December 2, 2016, according to the National Weather Service. With no snow on the horizon, the city is almost certain to set the new record.

Snow could arrive late Monday with a storm that could last until early Wednesday morning, said Klint Skelly, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. The system will likely bring a mix of snow and rain with the best chance of snow near the Palmerscheide and the Black Forest, he said.

The storm would be welcome after the city received just 0.03 inches of rainfall below the 0.37 inch average in November, according to the National Weather Service.

The system could also bring snow into the mountains and help build up the already missing snow cover.

The warm and dry conditions this fall have contributed to a longer growing season and can dry out the soils. When that happens, more of the melting spring snow would likely be soaked up before flowing into rivers and reservoirs, he said.

Heavy runoff in the spring can help the state’s reservoirs regain their water levels, Bolinger said. Colorado Springs is heavily dependent on reservoirs and water supplies on the Western Slope.

The US drought monitor shows that there is a drought in the state of Colorado. The darker shades on the map indicate a more severe drought. Courtesy US Drought Monitor

“When we have a good spring, we mostly make up for those shortfalls … If we don’t this year, we will feel these cumulative effects next summer,” she said.

It’s nearly impossible for the larger reservoirs like Lake Powell in Utah and Arizona to recover in the same way from the ongoing drought on the Colorado River, she said. Powell’s low levels earlier this year triggered unprecedented releases from the Flaming Gorge Dam on the Utah-Wyoming border, the Blue Mesa Reservoir near Gunnison, Colorado, and the Navajo Reservoir on the Colorado-New Mexico border.

Warm, dry conditions can also have a cumulative effect on trees that are not resting as intended, according to the Colorado State Forest Service.

Mild winters also allow insects to survive the winter and reproduce several times a year, increasing their numbers and the negative effects on trees, she said.

Residents can protect the urban canopy of canopy that keeps the community cooler in the summer by watering their trees to protect them during the fall and winter drought conditions. She added that when trees die, residents should replace them with drought-resistant species.