John Hazlehurst
The Bureau of Reclamation’s statement on Tier 1 water shortages on the Colorado River earlier this week was long awaited, but still epoch-making. It signals the end of the 99-year life of the Colorado River Compact and the end of the era of cheap water and unrestrained urban growth.
It may take a while for the growth and prosperity of Colorado Springs and the Pikes Peak region to deteriorate, but it will affect us. Despite being hundreds of miles from the river, about 70 percent of Colorado Springs’ water comes from the Colorado.
Founded by longtime Secretary of State Herbert Hoover as a midwife, the Colorado River Compact is an agreement between seven western states to divide the water of the Colorado River between the three states of the Lower Basin (Arizona, California and Nevada) and the four states of the Upper Basin (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming). The agreement was based on the allocations on the historical runoff of the river, which was measured over decades at various points along the course of the river.
As agricultural, agricultural, and urban uses expanded, the federal government partnered with the seven states to expand the range, flexibility, and resilience of the river system. The Hoover Dam dammed Lake Mead in 1933, creating the largest reservoir in the United States. In 1966, the Glen Canyon Dam dammed Lake Powell, dammed the Colorado River 186 miles, filled 96 canyons, and created nearly 2,000 miles of coastline. It is a popular vacation spot for millions of westerners annually.
For many decades, river outflows in the Colorado Basin were well below those estimated by the original signatories of the agreement, even before climate change. It turns out that the years between 1880 and 1920 were historically wet, but the system’s exceptional storage capacity and resilience more than made up for the roughly 20 percent deficit.
But as this century began, the effects of climate change began to work. We are now in the 20th year of a regional mega-drought that has been unparalleled for at least 2,000 years.
The formula is simple: more heat, more evaporation, dry soil, less snow accumulation in the Rockies, less runoff and decreasing current in the river.
The two large reservoirs have steadily shrunk. Neither Powell nor Mead have been anywhere near full since the 1990s. Today, both are around 33 percent occupied and are continuing to decline.
This week’s deficiency declaration cuts Arizona’s allotment by 17 percent and only affects agricultural users who receive water from the Central Arizona Project. Nevada will take a relatively small hit, and California is unharmed for the time being. Water users in Colorado and Wyoming were affected when the office released water from the Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa and Navajo reservoirs to expand storage in Powell.
Future restrictions are likely to have an even bigger impact on Lower Basin states and have already sparked angry calls for interstate justice. Blake Apgar reported for the Boulder City Review in mid-July about a meeting of water utilities, environmentalists, elected leaders, and business and agricultural officials.
“We’re here to say, ‘Damn the status quo. No business as usual, ‘”said Kyle Roerink, Executive Director of the Great Basin Water Network. Another speaker was even clearer.
“It is insane that when the Colorado River hits its lowest level in recorded history, we are proposing a new water diversion upstream,” said Zach Frankel of the Utah Rivers Coalition. “While the Lower Basin is on a diet to reduce its water usage, we shouldn’t let the Upper Basin go to an all-you-can-eat buffet of wasted water.”
Such confabs are the long-delayed consequence of disproportionately low allocations to Lower Basin states, whose populations have exploded since the 1920s. Pressures for justice will affect Colorado Springs, Denver, and other communities in the Upper Basin.
The contract is set to be renegotiated in 2026, but if the mega-drought continues, changes can come much faster. Cities vs. agriculture and ranching, Lower Basin vs. Upper Basin, environmentalists vs. water developers – all of these ancient feuds will be resolved in a bitter, impartial, deeply politicized series of battles.
As for me, I don’t know. I would love to replace my overgrown front yard with an irrigated lawn, lie on my back at night and look at the stars. I guess I waited too long.
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