Falling Lake Powell levels cause Colorado River states to create a new plan for Navajo Hopi Observer

By Luke Runyon / KUNC, Cronkite News

Originally published: May 25, 2021 at 10:45 am

GRAND CANYON, Arizona – Declining levels at the second largest reservoir in the United States have led officials in Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico to look for ways to help.

Lake Powell on the Colorado River is falling rapidly in one of the driest years of the southwestern watershed ever recorded. A capacity of 29 percent is forecast by the end of September – the lowest level since the reservoir was first filled in 1963. The sister reservoir downstream on the Colorado River, Lake Mead, is also approaching a record low this year.

The amount of water that has flowed to Lake Powell since October has been less than that provided by the river in the same period in 2002, the driest year on record. The total reservoir storage in the Colorado River basin is expected to reach 39 percent of capacity by the end of September.

“Our team of Colorado River hydrology experts have closely monitored conditions and analyzed the impact on river operations and are well aware of daunting projections,” said Rebecca Mitchell, director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, in a statement.

The federal projections for the reservoir are causing water officials to develop strategies to prevent Lake Powell from sinking to levels where hydropower cannot be generated. In a statement, the Upper Colorado River Commission announced it would begin developing a plan to combat periods of drought, a measure set out in a 2019 agreement. Earlier this year, the decline in the reservoir sparked monthly calls in Upper Basin states and required a wider range of modeling.

The commission is made up of officials from Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, Utah, and the federal government.

“Colorado stands ready to work with our neighboring Upper Basin states to implement all aspects of the drought contingency plan when conditions warrant,” said Mitchell.

The 2019 drought contingency plan provides for operational changes to Glen Canyon Dam to maintain lake levels when a decline is forecast above a critical threshold indicated in the plan as 3,525 feet above sea level.

While some models indicate that it is plausible that the reservoir could drop below this point by next spring, the most likely forecast is that Lake Powell will remain just above this point. Even so, Upper Basin leaders say they can’t wait to see how bad things get.

“The parties feel it is wise to begin developing a plan now rather than waiting until we hit the absolute 3,525-foot threshold,” said Amy Haas, director of the Upper Colorado River Commission.

A plan to combat the upper basin drought could include water releases from upstream reservoirs, including Blue Mesa, Navajo, and Flaming Gorge, to support the diminishing pool at Lake Powell. The details of how these publications would be made are not known.

“This is all new territory,” said Haas.

In its statement, the Upper Colorado River Commission also acknowledged that Secretary Deb Haaland could step in and take “immediate action” if conditions worsened. Haaland would need to consult with the Colorado River states before taking action. The plan does not define what constitutes an emergency in a federal reservoir and leaves it to Haaland to report an emergency.

The announcement by the Upper Colorado River Commission comes to mark the two-year anniversary of the signing ceremony of the Drought Contingency Plan at Hoover Dam in 2019.